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What’s wrong with Ubuntu and RH? Is it because of the snaps / source code debacle? Both of those had solid business cases to them and while I dislike the outcome, I do understand why they made that choice and most importantly - I still approximate what each company does for FOSS.
There are various obstacles to “just forking” a project; it requires times to understand the frameworks / libraries used in the project, understand the code and its different parts and last but not least, have a interest to invest that time and energy (most often, that time could be spent developing your own solution that would fit your usecase better).
As for the stage I was referring to, both the theories of enshittification and rot-economy see software and services going through stages to attract new users, before going in for the profit maximizing.