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Cake day: July 3rd, 2023

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  • From what I gather, the paradigm is also shifting on that front. MRAP’s and such are big, slow, noisy, easily detectable, and most often get immobilized regardless of armor, and all it takes to take one out is just a more powerful charge (in a mine or strapped to a drone). So both sides are increasingly leaning towards more lightweight vehicles, like enduro bikes, ebikes, and even EUC’s. Yes, if one blows up on a mine or by drone, there’s absolutely zero hope for them, but it limits the casualties to just that one poor sob (and possibly his passenger) rather than a whole dozen in mrap, but the big the pro is that they’re a lot harder to detect and chase with drones, while being economically unreasonable to be fought with conventional military weaponry, and have much less footprint allowing them to weave through narrower paths and right through the minefields. The big downside is that it’s not feasible to supply tanks and artillery this way, which is why I mentioned that some consider them obsolete already. On the other hand, drones, bullets and food are perfectly deliver-able by other drones. Not humans yet, though, so some will have to make the runs for rotations still, which us where most casualties happen and will continue happening unless something entirely new pops up all of the sudden




  • Yes but a well placed himars strike can turn 100 russians into 0

    A well placed nuke can turn 3 mil Ukrainians into 0. What’s the point?

    The reason Russia is taking ground at all is because they just have more meat than Ukraine has bullets.

    Well that’s kind of the point. Even if you turn the question that way, as long as Russia has more troops than Ukrainians have bullets, it is still winning. It is set up to be a Pyrrhic victory from day 1, but a victory nonetheless.



  • Those are, in fact, good points, I just didn’t want to yap about them in the previous comment.

    The battlefield has, indeed, got quite stale with rare opportunistic gains or those that were gained through massive bloodshed. Trench warfare is once again the reality of modern war. Still, even with all the aid Ukraine has received the tide isn’t going in their favor.

    So, to put it shortly - on the battlefield, technology can cancel out numerical advantages of 3.5 to 4 quite realistically.

    I stand ground on my conviction that there is no 4x force multiplier, solely by the fact that whatever Ukraine deploys could be also deployed by Russia. Most definitely a somewhat shittier version, but which gets the job done, maybe giving the Ukraine’s side at most 2X advantage, but most importantly, magnitudes cheaper.

    Economically - Ukraine alone would not sustain production against Russia, but Ukraine happens to have EU in its back yard. The Russian economy is actually quite small compared to EU’s economy. So the economic unbalance can also be canceled out.

    Considering the point above, I wouldn’t be so sure about that given that we are… well, were for the past year in that position with the only difference of it being the US who’s providing most of the (military) aid rather than EU… and the front line is moving westwards nonetheless

    As for attrition on Russia - if you observe the footage and news, you will notice that they are low on cars, low on armor (and using a large percent of antiquated armor), and low on artillery barrels. Out of the USSR stockpile of ~13 000 tanks, estimated losses were recently standing at 9859 machines [1].

    Cars are def not a problem, the streets in Russia are absolutely flooded by Chinese imports. Tanks, artillery, and warships, from what I gather from some military analysts, and this will most likely sound controversial and so we’ll probably have to agree to disagree, is that those are basically entirely antiquated already by the advent of drone warfare. Armor shortages sounds surprising to me and I haven’t heard about that… I don’t see how it could problem for Russia, and yet it is… Corruption is the only possible answer I could see for that. But overall, even given that those are in fact necessary, as I’ve said, Russia still has a ton of economy not turned towards the war machine, and there’s a lot of factories to tap into to ramp the military production if necessary.

    And please don’t take it as me praising Russia. Putin is definitely in wrong here and Zelensky has all the moral high ground there could possibly be. I just see that many news sources blow out any small Ukrainian achievements out of proportion into some kind of twisted Good vs Evil, David vs Goliath stories. And it makes my blood boil as it leaves an impression of “Why help Ukrainians even more when they’re doing quite well already”, while hundreds of innocent people are killed and displaced every day and it isn’t stopping, and won’t stop, unless a drastic measure is taken.


    1. Go to deepstatemap.live, observe and click on few icons to verify a deep pro-Ukrainian bias. Click on the calendar icon, select a random date from the past year. Click play button. Observe constant and relentless advancement from the red areas and the simultaneous shrinking of the blue.

    2. Sanctions have largely failed. From personal experience in Russia, I can tell you, the people don’t feel like their country is at war. Business is as usual, the goods are still moving, the oil is flowing. The prices do rise quite quick, but it’s not like they don’t any other time. If anything, it only put a roadblock to opposing views for the people who can’t be too arsed to buy a VPN subscription.

    3. I’ve been saying this all the time, but without troops from other countries, Ukraine cannot possibly hold the lines, nevermind fighting back. Russia has 3.5x more population and 9x bigger economy before the war broke out. No amount of aid is going to turn one Ukrainian into four. It’s a simple math, and the two above points show exactly that. Anyone who tells that Russia is somehow losing is straight up lying to feed people what they want to hear.