I think there’s legitimate concern that if they do that, they play directly into R plans. Currently tens of thousands of federal workers have taken the buyout, and the Rs are trying to dismantle every agency and encourage workers to step aside, stand down, and go quietly into that good night. Agreeing to a shutdown means the workers aren’t going to be paid, and though the government has generally done back pay, I think it’s a real concern that it’s not going to happen this time. A lot of good people will be forced to leave to keep food on the table. Who does that really benefit? Elon and his ilk/their cronies aren’t doing it for the pay, so they can get a skeleton crew to overtake these now empty agencies, and maintain it’s for the good of America, while “spending gets sorted out”.
You’re right on counts 1 & 2, but people have been referring to it as a buy out, so I’m just using that term colloquially, and the fact it’s illegal doesn’t change the fact that tens of thousands of federal employees are expecting/planning on quitting, since it effectively worked as a mass resignation.
Regarding point 3, I bring it up because essentially by stopping government employees from being paid, it’s going to encourage people that were willing to hang on, to be less inclined to do so, depending on the length of the shut down.
Kinda feels like you didn’t read my comment, because I already mentioned that stopping government work will not stop DOGE from dismantling the government. I’m not saying one or the other option is definitely better, but I’m sure it’s something they’re considering. If the government employees aren’t there, there’s nothing stopping musk et al from barging in and confiscating documents or electronics. Clearly it hasn’t stopped them so far, but at least there are people there witnessing it and documenting it. If the shutdown happens and people just start leaving, it definitely makes DOGEs work easier.