I think we can’t know, but LLMs definitely feel like a notable acceleration. Exponential functions are also, well, exponential. As X grows, X × X grows faster. The exponential part is gonna come from meta-models, coordinating multiple specialized models to complete complex tasks. Once we get a powerful meta-model, we’re off to the races. AI models developing AI models.
It could take 50 years, it could take 5, it could happen this Wednesday. We won’t know which development is going to be the one to tip us over the edge until it happens, and even then only in retrospect. But it could very well be soon.
I think we can’t know, but LLMs definitely feel like a notable acceleration. Exponential functions are also, well, exponential. As X grows, X × X grows faster. The exponential part is gonna come from meta-models, coordinating multiple specialized models to complete complex tasks. Once we get a powerful meta-model, we’re off to the races. AI models developing AI models.
It could take 50 years, it could take 5, it could happen this Wednesday. We won’t know which development is going to be the one to tip us over the edge until it happens, and even then only in retrospect. But it could very well be soon.